Projecting Top Ranked Players (a look back)

A Look Back at Rankings of Yesteryear

As the New Year begins, it’s only natural to take a look back; there’s an old saying that those who don’t understand history are doomed to repeat it.  Recently, we at Hoops Factory TV engaged in one of my favorite exercises; looking back at old Top prospect lists to see at who ended up where.  I devolved my own theories over time; chief among them is that making the NBA is hard.

Like really, reeeaaaaalllllly hard; even if you’re the best player in your state.  Looking back at Rivals and ESPNU’s list over the past 10 years, it seems that being rated in the top 5 nationally still only gives you about a 60% of making the pro’s.  Sure there are special classes like 2009, a class that had John Wall, Avery Bradley, DeMarcus Cousins, and Derrick Favors all in the top 5 of both lists.  However, once you venture outside the top 5, it doesn’t seem to matter if you are ranked 6th or 60th; the chances of sticking in the league seam to about the same.  Even with all the talent in the class of 2009, one could argue the Kawhi Leonard, who is ranked near 50 on both lists, turned out to be the best player in the class.

And that is really where the rubber meets the road, as they say; these projections are looking for stars, not roles players or journeymen.  Matter of fact, it seamed like being ranked in the 50’s correlated to being a star more often than being ranked anywhere outside the top 5; Klay Thompson in ’08 is another example of player ranked in the 50’s who is arguably the best players in his class.  And the ’08 class is a perfect example of a class with only 3 out of the top 5 still in the league.  BJ Mullens was ranked in the top 5 on both lists that year with Samardo Samuels on the ESPN list & Scotty Hopson on the Rivals list; none have been on an NBA roster since 2014

Now, none of this is to say that the people who compile these lists are incapable of seeing talent, 60% is pretty good when it comes to predicting pros.  This is more to say that no matter how good a player a kid is in high school; the amount of work still left to be done to make oneself into a professional is still ahead of each one of them.  Projecting how hard an 18-19 year old will work from high school into adulthood is always the hardest part of these types of projections.

Even getting drafted in the lottery is no guarantee for mutiple contracts like it used to be.  Hasheem Thabeet is probably the most famous example of this but his own draft lottery includes Jonny Flynn & Terrence Williams; both who ave been out of the league since 2013. And none of this is to say that these players can’t play; the difference in talent between the 11th or 12th player on a roster and guys on the outside of the league normally isn’t much.  Coach-ability, work ethic, and overall demeanor seem to hold have had a much bigger influence recently in marginal players ability to stay in the league over a prolonged career.

So then, what is the point?  The point is to say predicting NBA stars at the high school level is almost impossible.  There are so many stories from Shea Cotton to Lenny Cooke that illustrate the need for every player to work as hard as they can at every possible opportunity in order to achieve their goals.  Really that is a philosophy that will work in all aspects of life, work as hard as you can at every possible opportunity.  Cause really it doesn’t matter weather you have a high ranking or are unranked (ask Steph Curry); the future is not promised no matter how much of a prodigy you are being hailed as (ask Cliff Alexander) and the work is always yet to be done.

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@HoopsFactoryTV